Tuesday, April 22, 2008

PA Election Day

Ok, it's some 8 and a half hours before polls close in PA. Here are my thoughts about the outcome.

It's curious that Obama is saying that "he thinks they will do well" in PA. Which to my ears means, I think we're going to lose by low single digits or win. Because if his internal polls were saying he's going to lose big he can't say he thinks he'll do well because when he loses big, that loss will be magnified. So, I think he must sense something happening. Some real tightening in the race.

What Hillary is saying seems to also bear this out. One of her supporters said today that "A win is a win". Which means if they win by only 1/2 a percentage point they will spin this as a HUGE win for them. Which in reality it isn't, because this was expected to be a blowout for her a month ago. The polls show her ahead by single digits today. A stunning loss of some 15 points in a month.

It's still early in the day and information is still scarce but some blogs are starting to make predictions. A good one www.dailykos.com has an interesting theory about the Lehigh Valley outside of Philadelphia.

Apparently how this area goes, so goes the state. It had been thought to be heavily for Hillary so both candidates hadn't visited there. That is until a few days ago when a poll of the area showed a very close race.

I'm going to play it safe and predict a very close win for Hillary. But I wouldn't be surprised if Obama wins.

P.S., as an example of how motivated some people are to vote in this primary, a source in the PA voter registration office told me of one person who called the office yesterday to inquire as to how to vote if you will not be able to make it to the polls. She had a good excuse. She's was in labor and will likely be giving birth today, but she wants to vote. She was informed that she could fill out an emergency vote form at the office. But ask yourself, if you were in labor would you thinking about voting? She also said that she would ask her doctor to let her leave the hospital for a few hours to go vote. That's motivation. Which candidate do you think inspires that much devotion?

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